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Cause and Effect in European Politics and Law
The crisis

The crisis

 | © European Union | © European Union

IMF to Take Over Global Economic Governance

Three years ago, at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, it was finally acknowledged that the G20 was the new global format. Thus the death of the G7 was announced, as the group defining global agenda for the only reason that it consisted of the seven most economically developed countries. In 2009, a y ...
 | © European Union | © European Union

Let's leave theory to economists - there will be a crisis

The debt crisis in the eurozone is deepening and already bit Italy and is approaching France - two of the largest economies in the monetary union. In the meantime, on the other side of the Atlantic, the United States managed to closely avoid a default after reaching a hard and not very reasonabl ...
 | © European Union | © European Union

Creditors and debtors of all countries - unite!

Now it is absolutely clear - a new global crisis is inevitable. It is also clear that not everyone understands this, so we can hardly expect concerted efforts or at least an attempt to soften the crash. In the past few weeks market tension has increased to an extent indicating that hysteria is u ...
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The economic spring expected to be hot

The dreamed golden ratio in the global economy seems to be hiding again behind the horizon with growing concerns of overheating in some emerging economies that are important for the global power balance. An analysis of the American think-tank Carnegie, by the authors Uri Dadush and Bennett Stanc ...
 | © Audiovisual service | © Audiovisual service

Industry Watch: The debt crisis in the euro area does not affect Bulgaria for now

Just days before the European Council in Brussels, which was expected to find a solution to the debt crisis in the euro area, the analyst company Industry Watch made the first in Bulgaria analysis on the situation in the peripheral economies in the euro area and their connection to Bulgaria. Acc ...
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Low-debt countries are now the latest fashion

The problem with debt - both private and public - lies in the foundation of the global crisis and the unsustainable economic recovery. This is one of the conclusions in the analysis of Dr Constantin Vayenas, Head of the Emerging Markets Research department at the UBS, who was in Sofia at the inv ...
 | © The Department of Foreign Affairs of Canada | © The Department of Foreign Affairs of Canada

G20: balance on the edge of growth

Contrary to the expectations that the emotions of the football game between England and Germany can stretch the frozen in a deadlock disputes in the G20, this did not happen. The leaders of the 20 most developed economies concluded their meeting in Toronto with a compromise declaration, which re ...
 | © The White House Blog | © The White House Blog

G20 is awaiting the England - Germany football game

The G20 meeting in Toronto is starting with football passions - the epic game between England and Germany for the World Cup in South Africa. The leaders of the two countries - David Cameron and Angela Merkel even consider watching the game together. Cameron told journalists, that he "will try no ...
 | © European Council | © European Council

Who will win in Toronto?

Economic recovery and a balance of public finances; reform of global financial system; enhancing international financial institutions; building the future through trade liberalisation and investments. These are the priorities of the summit this weekend in Toronto of the 20 most developed economi ...
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EU: Sofia is an optimist, but reforms are needed!

The objectives in the Bulgarian Convergence Programme are broadly in line with the requirements of the Stability Pact, but the programme is based on more favorable forecasts, there is a lack of long-term measures and there are some serious risks for its implementation. This is written in the ass ...
 | © Eropean Commisson-Audiovisual Service | © Eropean Commisson-Audiovisual Service

Do not competitivize me!

Bulgarian business is looking energized lately. I mean, it takes part in trilateral meetings with the government, represented by N number of organisations and is helping the government to deal with the crisis. But what is the business working, I asked myself? Because this nice word means work, a ...
 | © Eropean Commisson-Audiovisual Service | © Eropean Commisson-Audiovisual Service

About the merits of the excessive deficit

The European Commission will prepare a report on the factors that lead to the increase of Bulgaria's fiscal deficit with over 3% of its GDP. This is the first step of the excess deficit procedure which has been automatically activated for Bulgaria after the Eurostat announced its spring data abo ...
 | © Spanish Presidency | © Spanish Presidency

Elena Salgado: No country will present a stupid budget

On the second day of their informal meeting EU finance ministers discussed the new measures the European institutions propose to introduce to avoid a repetition of the Greek crisis in the future. The main problem however, is the legal framework which is supposed to grant the European Commission ...
 | © Audiovisual Service of the EU | © Audiovisual Service of the EU

The European commission “bites” countries with large deficits

"But we need to sharpen our teeth. We need to think ways of addressing cases of recidivists, who continuously break the rules. Penalties are possible even within the current Treaty but not always effectively used." If you have ever doubted that you would hear the European Commissioner for Econom ...
 | © Ministry of Finance of Bulgaria | © Ministry of Finance of Bulgaria

Whoever is exiting the crisis three steps forward! Bulgaria, where are you going?

The conclusion of a large part of EU member states is that the stability and convergence programmes have already started fiscal consolidation one way or another. In some countries this is clearer than others, as the statement of EU ministers of finance says. They have an informal meeting in Madr ...
 | © Audiovisual Service of the EU | © Audiovisual Service of the EU

Control - the supreme form of trust

On May 12 the European Commission will come up with a concrete proposal for enforcing European control over national budgets, as well as for an increased economic integration and enforcement of the Stability and Growth Pact to include, aside from the budgetary deficit, also public debt indicator ...
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The short legs of the budgetary deficit*

The general rule says that most important is the news which either concerns a lot of people or has long term consequences, or both. From this point further it is a matter of assessment of each media which news could be most important. When a news is in the first category, which is - concerns a l ...
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Few parties rally for economic policy ideas

In the wake of unconvincing an chaotic government's actions to take the country out of the crisis, as well as the lack of a clear vision how the economy should develop in the future, few small Bulgarian parties started filling the gap by introducing their economic views. First was the small righ ...
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The revenues forecast for 2010 is too ambitious, according to Industry Watch

For the 12 months to January the foreign savings' flow to Bulgaria was only 2.8 bn euro, compared to almost 15 bn in 2008, the Industry Watch reports, quoting official data from the Bulgarian National Bank regarding the balance of payment. According to these data, there is a certain increase in ...
 | © Eropean Commisson | © Eropean Commisson

Barroso: No country can be expelled from euro zone

The European Commission is against changes in the Lisbon Treaty, in order to create a European Monetary Union as Germany proposed, the European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said in an interview with France 24, quoted by EurActiv. "According to the Lisbon Treaty, no country can be pu ...
 | © Council of the European Union | © Council of the European Union

Greece - proud but grateful

"I welcome the decision taken by the Eurogroup as a very important decision to move forwards. I want to reiterate: Greece has not requested financial help form its Eurozone partners". This is how the Greek minister of finance Giorgos Papakonstantinou explained the situation surrounding the probl ...
 | © The Council of the European Union | © The Council of the European Union

ECOFIN: Greece is doing well

The European Union is satisfied with the austerity measures of the Greek government, aimed at putting back to track Greece's enormous debt and growing budgetary deficit. The 27 EU ministers of finance announced they were satisfied with the first report of the Greek government. They support the E ...
 | © The Council of the European Union | © The Council of the European Union

The Eurozone stands ready for an urgent assistance for Greece

Eurozone ministers of finance have agreed on a mechanism to secure urgent assistance for Greece, if necessary. At Eurogroup's meeting on Monday evening, "the technical possibilities to take quick decision for coordinated actions in case of a need" have been clarified, a statement of the minister ...
 | © The Council of the European Union | © The Council of the European Union

The EU discusses a bail-out for Greece?

The Finance ministers of the European Union are meeting on Tuesday to asses the implementation of Greece's austerity measures and to decide whether Athens should receive a rescue package from the community. It is expected the deal to be approved by the Euro group on Monday evening. Authorities i ...
 | © Bundeskanzlerin | © Bundeskanzlerin

Merkel: the EMF would require changes in the EU Treaty

The German chancellor Angela Merkel announced she supported the idea for a European Monetary Fund but warned that this might mean another change in EU Treaties, the EUobserver reported. The reason behind the need of a treaty change is the EU's 'no bailout' rule, said Ms Merkel, as outlined in th ...
 | © Audiovisual service of the European Union | © Audiovisual service of the European Union

The European Monetary Fund: and justice for all

Is there justice in solidarity: this, almost philosophical question, was painfully raised by the financial crisis. As the protests in Greece showed and the referendum in Iceland, two of the worst hit by the crisis states, people firmly showed they did not accept to pay private debts with public ...
 | © euinside | © euinside

Less revenues in the Treasury of Bulgaria

The bad news for less revenues in the Treasury of Bulgaria continue to pop up. According to Industry Watch, the fiscal reserve of the country by the end of January has dropped by 300 mn levs (153 mn euro), compared to December 2009 and by 1.5 bn levs (769 mn euro), compared to January last year. ...
 | © euinside | © euinside

Grey economy is growing because of the pro-crisis measures of the government in Bulgaria

1 bn levs (512 mn euro) less revenues in the Treasury for January, compared to 2009, the Ministry of Finance reported while spending, increased by 540 mn levs (276 mn euro), Milen Velchev from the NDSV liberal party announced. A great part of this budgetary deficit is due to delayed payments of ...
 | © Audiovisual Service | © Audiovisual Service

Greece is only the occasion but what is the reason?

Strange things are happening lately to the single European currency - the euro. Under the rumble and the splashes, caused by the financial storm in Greece, it appears that very dangerous things are swimming underneath, which show that no one in this world depends on himself only, that the econom ...

1.9% budgetary deficit of Bulgaria for 2009, the IMF forecast shows

The budgetary deficit of Bulgaria will probably reach 1.9% for 2009 because of not yet paid debt of the state in the end of last year, the IMF forecast shows, presented during the regular mission of the Fund to Bulgaria. It also says that the abrupt spending cuts in the second half of 2009 as we ...

When the state turns into a step-mother

Public debt towards companies in Bulgaria turned into a major dispute in the last few months not only because of the lack of concrete information how much the debt actually is but also because of fears that the unwillingness of the state to pay it might lead to numerous bankruptcies this year. I ...
 | © Audiovisual Service | © Audiovisual Service

Greece should not be saved, according to Gheorghi Anghelov

The story of Greece's financial situation not only caused serious economic and political turbulences in the eurozone but also gave reason for numerous discussions about how and whether Greece should be helped so as to prevent an increase of the pressure over the rest of the euro countries. In th ...
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Greece is a compromise or - theory and practice of mistakes

Greece's eurozone membership was the result of a political decision because everyone was aware of Greece's economic troubles. "Even public indicators then showed that the eurozone made an absolute compromise with Greece - they neither covered the public debt criteria (the public debt level was b ...

Free lunch for wise guys

The Greeks are striking. They protest against the rescue measures the government had to take so as to save the country from bankruptcy. In fact, the unhappy Greeks' behaviour directly corresponds to Papandreou's government's behaviour no matter that the protests are against it. As you know, curr ...
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An increase of salaries in spite of the crisis?

The National Statistic Institute of Bulgaria reports 13.3% increase of the nominal cost of salaries in 2009, compared to 2008, in spite of the contraction of labour demand and the increase of unemployment. The average salary, before payment of taxes and social securities, was 585 levs (300 euro) ...
 | © Expat Capital | © Expat Capital

Bulgaria's real budgetary deficit is 2-3%, according to EXPAT CAPITAL

A new macro economic point of view emerged in Bulgarian analytical space these days - the financial company EXPAT CAPITAL presented for the first time its own analysis of the macro economic situation of Bulgaria. A managing partner in the company is the former minister in two governments with th ...
 | © The Council of the European Union | © The Council of the European Union

ECOFIN extended the excess deficit procedures against Lithuania, Malta and Romania

One more year will now have Lithuania, Malta and Romania so as to return their budgetary deficit within the framework below 3% of GDP. This is now possible after the Economic and Finance Ministers Council has decided to extend the excess deficit procedures against the three countries. Thus Malta ...
 | © The Council of the European Union | © The Council of the European Union

Eurostat and the Commission investigate Greece

Eurostat (the European Statistics Service) has requested the Greek government to provide all documents related to a deal with Greek state debt in 2001 with the investment bank Goldman Sachs, the Monetary and Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn announced in the end of the meeting of EU financ ...
 | © Consilium | © Consilium

The Greek premier is on a visit in Moscow

While the European finance ministers were discussing the financial troubles of Greece, the prime minister of the country George Papandreou arrived on a working visit in Moscow. His official talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin were expected today. Papandreou was supposed to discuss ...
 | © The Council of the European Union | © The Council of the European Union

The Commission wants broader and deeper supervision on national economic policies

The European Commission intends to ask for a broader and deeper supervision over national economic policies in the euro area, the new Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn announced last night. He added after a late evening meeting of the Eurogroup (the eurozone financial ministe ...
 | © The Council of the European Union | © The Council of the European Union

EU should retreat from harmonisation, an analysis says

There are a lot of opinions why Greece managed not only to put itself into its current terrible situation but also to start dragging the whole eurozone backwards. One of the main reasons why only Greece is in such a difficult condition and the other countries are still holding up, is the almost ...

The crisis and GDP as an indicator

According to the initial data of the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) the GDP of Bulgaria for 2009 was 66.2 bn levs (33.94 bn euro). This data shows almost no change, in the size of the economy, measured in levs (the national currency), compared to 2008 when the GDP was 66.7 bn levs (34.20 ...
 | © Audiovisual Service | © Audiovisual Service

ECOFIN will ask for a timetable from Greece

The situation in Greece, the eurozone and the EU in general will be discussed today and tomorrow by the ministers of finance of the Union (ECOFIN) in Brussels. It is expected Greece to be given a specific timetable to correct its budgetary deficit. The government in Athens itself committed to re ...
 | © Walt Disney | © Walt Disney

The Tea Party of globalisation

Do you remember that very amusing chapter in "Alice in Wonderland" when Alice got at the tea party at the Hatter where she met the strange White Rabbit with the watch and the large cat who spoke to each other absolutely rambling things but it was obvious that they were very serious and enjoyed i ...
 | © Audiovisual Service | © Audiovisual Service

9.4 bn levs is the state debt of Bulgaria

The accumulated external and internal debt of Bulgaria by the end of December 2009 was approximately 9.4 bn levs (4.8 bn euro), according to the data of Industry Watch Bulgaria. Compared to a year earlier, the state debt is almost unchanged. Currently the debt has increased from 14.2 to 14.4%. T ...

The Unemployment in Bulgaria is rising

Unemployment in Bulgaria by the end of November has reached 320,000 people which is with 104,000 people more compared to a year earlier, the data of Industry Watch show. According to the Employment Agency, the unemployment rate in November has reached 8.7%. The economic experts of Industry Watch ...
 | © Ministry of Finance of Bulgaria | © Ministry of Finance of Bulgaria

The Bulgarian government is looking for money, if possible less painful

At a closed discussion in the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance on Monday renown Bulgarian economists met with the deputy minister of finance Ana Mihaylova to discuss with her possible future sources and forms of financing in 2010 when it is expected, again, the budget to end with a deficit because ...

Industry Watch: Labour remains the most taxed deal in Bulgaria

Taxation and social securities in Bulgaria for this year were 33.6% of all expenses for labour which makes the labour trade one of the most taxed deals in Bulgaria, the estimations of Industry Watch show. For 2010 the economists of Industry Watch say that this burden would slightly diminish to 3 ...
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Who and how talks about the budget deficit in Bulgaria

Since the new Bulgarian government has come to power, one of the main topics is the budget deficit. However, there is a significant difference in the way the government talks about the deficit and the independent economic experts. The deputy prime minister and minister of finance Simeon Dyankov ...
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It is high time the budget to become public

This position united together independent economists and the members of the economic team of the NDSV (the party of the former Bulgarian tsar Simeon Saxecobourggotta, now outside parliament). At a discussion about Budget 2010 the former deputy finance minister Lyubomir Datsov said that the budge ...
 | © Audiovisual service | © Audiovisual service

Bulgaria has no strategy for green jobs

The reason is that there is no link between the economic and social policy. This is what came up during the regular session of the Bulgarian European Affairs Council which is a coordinating body under the auspices of the government. This body prepares the positions of Bulgaria for the European C ...

3.1 bn euro less investments in Bulgaria for this year

The foreign capital flow to Bulgaria has been 5.5 bn euro for the last 1 year until September, the latest data for last week of Industry Watch shows. For the same period of last year the foreign investments were 8.7 bn euro. The direct foreign investments were a little less 3.3 bn euro which is ...
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The government should present a plan for reforms with concrete dates, says Georgi Stoev

On the occasion of the approval of Budget 2010 and some symbolic statements by the Bulgarian prime minister Boyko Borisov and his deputy the minister of finance Simeon Dyankov, euinside asked the economist and managing associate in Industry Watch Bulgaria Georgi Stoev for his opinion: euinside: ...
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"It should be said what was the reason for the taming of the budget deficit of Bulgaria"

This is what the managing associate of Industry Watch said in an interview for euinside regarding the boasting of the deputy prime minister and minister of finance Simeon Dyankov that the government had managed to tackle the budget deficit and in October the budget was balanced. And last week Mr ...
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The party is over

According to the autumn forecast of the European Commission, the Bulgarian economy will start growing again in 2011. However, with much slower pace than before the crisis. For a start of the recovery, the forecast points the second half of 2010, saying that the actual GDP growth in 2011 will rea ...
 | © G8 | © G8

The G7 is dead, long live the G20!

If you have ever paid attention to the news about the G7 summits, then the G8 summits and now, since recently - the G20, have you ever thought of what these organisations deal with? We constantly talk about the UN, for a pile of other world formats but, yet, we remain with the feeling that world ...
 | © Xinhua | © Xinhua

There no longer be G8 - the G20 is the new global economic format

G20 is the new and most important forum for international cooperation. This is what the leaders of the Twenty have decided on their summit in Pittsburgh yesterday. But with this the concrete decisions run out. However, the decision the G20 to replace the current G8 format, in which the most deve ...
 | © The London G20 summit | © The London G20 summit

You can't make an omplette without breaking the eggs or - the G20 summit starts

The differences between Europe and the US on reforming the global financial architecture threaten to overshadow the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, which officially starts today. Some serious disputes appear around the governing structure of the IMF (the International Monetary Fund) against the backgr ...
 | © http://www.g20pittsburghsummit.org | © http://www.g20pittsburghsummit.org

G20 will be the winner of the crisis

It's been for some years a discussion about reforming the UN in such a way to represent better the global balance of power. The way the world organisation is established it very much reflects the realities of the time around the World War II. Now the world is different. But the reform of the UN ...
 | © Georgi Stoev | © Georgi Stoev

Georgi Stoev: The state must withdraw from public services

euinside is continuing the discussion on the proposal of the Commission to include additional indicators like environment and social equality to the GDP. Today we are introducing the opinion of the managing partner at the Industry Watch Georgi Stoev. According to him, the inclusion of such indic ...

Georgi Angelov: GDP is not a good indicator but is the only one so far

The European Commission has presented last week its proposal for enlargement of the scale of the GDP as an indicator for the status of the economy. euinside is publishing herewith the opinion of the senior economic analyst from the Open Society institute Mr. Georgi Angelov: euinside: How would y ...
 | © Audiovisual service | © Audiovisual service

GDP will no longer be a measurer of economy

The traditional way to measure an economy, the gross domestic product (GDP), is getting a little outdated, according to the European Commission. This is what the website EUobserver writes in an article today, quoting a statement of the Commission. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of a country ...